I am bursting with joy to see that my company is starting to make some bold and public predictions about cloud computing.
NetworkWorld just published the results of a Deloitte study on technology predictions for 2009.
Duncan Stewart, a Director at Deloitte Research, is quoted in the article that the future of computing, “”is essentially an eight-bit kernel of Windows code going back to the mid-1980s.” The study’s conclusion, in a nutshell, is that cloud computing and remote data storage will make higher degrees of processing power unnecessary. So why would we ever need to have the “save” button for our hard drives?
(BTW– Some good videos on this study can be found here)
Back to the Future?
This is an interesting premise. Its hard for me to disagree with the conclusions given the general direction of the business community. (Do you feel a but coming on?) A recent blog by Andy McAfee cites a trend in business toward more open, co-created environment for business. This lends credence to a world where cloud computing would be important. However, we have to think bigger than business before with throw away our Dell XPSs.
Market Forces
It used to be true that business drove computing power; that is no longer the case. The video gaming and entertainment industry drives computing power.
I assure you if I don't buy it for myself, I will buy it for my son
Why do computers have to get faster, cheaper, and better? Because the gaming and entertainment industry continues to push the envelope of the possible. The voracious demand of consumers for more life-like graphics, sound, and immersive environments requires that computing power meet demand. Some server side applications have shouldered some these requirements (SecondLife, for instance). However the more popular (and fun) games like World of Warcraft still have some hefty desktop power needs. Even SecondLife ain’t too kind to a 486 users. Let us not forget how copyright laws play in too. iTunes requires that when I download music that I have a local location for storage. Why? Because they want to be sure I can rip only the CDs I buy and that I do not pervert copyright protections on the songs I get off iTunes. Once again, I will need a lot of processor power to quickly search my vast 500GB library of video and audio content.
So is it Desktop Power Forever?
Not necessarily. The economics of locally hosted storage will dictate whether or not we will move into a total cloud computing environment. If hosting companies like Blizzard decide to take on more processing needs because it suits the market, then we won’t need high-powered desktop computing. The realities of present technology must be considered. Its pretty hard (if not impossible) to meet consumer entertainment demands with existing bandwidth. If you have dial-up or DSL, then I gather you won’t be on-line gaming much, but you might and Blizzard has to have a way to reach you as a consumer. If they throw many megabytes of graphics through your pathetic DSL pipes, you may have some difficulties.
In any event, at the pace technology is changing and how abundant Internet services are becoming, perhaps the 8MB computer is coming. One thing is definitely true, Duncan Stewart is a stud for advancing our collective thoughts on the future of working in the cloud.
